S&P 500 futures outlook for June 8, 2016 – ES_F –Breakout formations grinding higher this morning after a day of consolidation at these breakout levels, and momentum continues to hold higher levels, but is now flattening. Overall, patterns still look bullish, with the best behavior of removing at targets above and not waiting for expansions higher. Buying off support bounces continues to hold the least risk. The new levels, 2118.5 to 2120.25, are resistance regions today. I still do not see major range expansion here, and it has been clear that any range expansions should be sold into higher support. Support today looks like 2106.5 – 2104.5. Below 2110, charts become more vulnerable to selling.
See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.
THE RANGE OF TUESDAY’S MOTION
E-mini S&P 500 Futures  (ES_F)
Outlook for June 8, 2016 –
Upside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 2115.25, or a positive retest of 2106.5 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2106.5 are 2109, 2111.25, 2113.5, 2115.25, 2116.5, 2118, and perhaps 2119.5, and 2120.25, if power remains with the buyers. Seeing quite a bit of divergent momentum. I will be watching for failed bounces, with return to higher lows as we are seeing over the prior days.
Downside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 2115 or at the failed retest of 2120.5 with negative divergence. It is important to watch for higher lows to develop with the 2120.5 entry, if the strength of motion holds with the buyers. Retracement into lower levels from 2120.5 gives us the targets 2115.75, 2112.5, 2109.6, 2108, 2106, 2104.75, 2101.5, 2099.5, 2096.25, 2094.25, 2092.5, 2090.5, and perhaps back to 2082.5.
Have a look at the Fibonacci levels marked in the blog for more targets.
Nasdaq Futures
Nasdaq futures outlook for June 8, 2016 –The NQ_F performed more weakly than the ES_F yesterday, but is holding steady at this writing, above a critical support region near 4520. Significant overhead supply continues to sit between 4543 and 4564. Weak momentum continues, but remains in positive territory. Bearish action will be amplified below the failed retest of 4511, and the failure to recapture 4504 will leave us vulnerable to sellers taking control. Buyers will be emboldened above 4829.5, but resistance again will make advancing to new weekly highs a bit tough.
Upside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 4529.5, or a positive retest of 4513.5 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Watch for the lower high to develop in the long opening at 4513.5, and sellers to force the chart down, if sellers take hold near the 4520.5 test from below. Targets from 4513.5 are 4516.5, 4520.25, 4524.5, 4529.25, 4534.5, 4538.75, 4543.75, 4550.75, 4554.5, and 4560.25. Range expansions above here should fail under the negative divergence, but could stretch into 4564-4578.
Downside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 4517.5 or at the failed retest of 4538.25 with negative divergence. Retracement into lower levels from 4538.25 gives us the targets 4535.5, 4531.5, 4528.75, 4525.25, 4520.75, 4516.5, 4512.5, 4508.5, 4502.5, 4497.5, 4479.5, 4472.25, 4464.75, 4451.25, and perhaps 4434.5 – but those deep levels only come about if we have a real shift of momentum.
Oil
Outlook for crude oil futures for June 8, 2016 – CL_F – EIA report at 10:30 eastern. A draw in the API report allowed charts to punch north into new resistance near 51.12. Bullish action remains slightly more probable, so pullbacks ought to be bought, as they were yesterday and the day before. Support test long entries hold the least risk, but it should be noted that we are very close to significant resistance.
The trading range on crude oil suggests support action near 49.4, and resistance behavior near 51.58, but could expand into 52.15.
Upside trades on crude oil futures can be staged on the breach of 51.12, or at a pullback into 50.64. If the chart dips sharply into 49.97 again, buyers will lurk there also – this is due to the formation of price action in play. I often use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 49.97 are 50.12, 50.37, 50.71, 50.92, 51.12, 51.35, 51.58, and if we really expand, 51.71 and 51.95 to 52.15. Range expansion could occur here if buyers exercise real pressure, or if stops start getting triggered. Price is still very likely to fail on any big range expansion, especially if it is due to squeezing action on the stops.
Downside trades on crude oil futures can be staged on the failed retest of 50.92, or at the failed retest of 51.52 with negative divergence. Again, we can also look for exhaustion moves north, but with eyes on higher support coming in to push the chart upward. These setups give us targets from 51.52 into 51.35, 51.12, 50.94, 50.67, 50.46, 50.27, 49.97, 49.72, 49.4, 49.27, 49.04, 49.98, 48.86, 48.7, 48.49, 48.27, 47.97, and perhaps 47.68 to 47.24.
If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.
As long as the trader keeps himself aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.
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The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
