With a big Federal Reserve meeting announcement today, the outlook for S&P 500 futures is cloudy at best; it’s also OPEX week. But I will continue to be guided by the price action.
S&P 500 futures charts are congested as buyers continue to defend support regions yesterday into the Fed meeting announcement today. We have a lower high, but momentum across stock market futures still shows buyers able to come to the rescue at support zones on the S&P 500 futures chart. 2005 is a clear decision region. Below that, support sits between 2001.5 and 1997 – resistance sits at congestion near 2010-2017.5.
Momentum on the four hour chart is positive, but drifting lower still -suggesting that buyers will still show up at key support levels. Continue to watch for lower highs to develop, if sellers gain momentum and force price off the prior day’s high. The bounces higher will become shallow, and support regions lower, if sellers are taking hold.
Shorter time frame momentum indicators are sloping up, but momentum is damp. Level to level trading between support and resistance into the Fed release should be the order of the day.
See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.
THE RANGE OF THURSDAY’S MOTION
Crude Oil Futures (CL_F)
Crude oil futures bounced off deeper support yesterday and is now trying to hold above 37.00. Momentum shows a likelihood of rejection of the bounce levels near 37.34.
Today, the trading ranges for crude oil futures are between 36.06 and 37.89 –with the burden of defense on the buyers at support of 36.06. Breaks of these levels are likely to retrace before moving again.
Moving averages in oil show mixed to slightly negative momentum on longer time frames. Support levels near 35.9 need to hold for buyers to continue to hold the power to rise. Resistance sits near 37.55 – that will bring buyers back into a position of strength.
Intraday long trading setups on crude oil suggest a long off 37.38 positive retest (check momentum here), or 36.74 bounce and positive retest into 36.89, 37.04, 37.38, 37.64, 37.85; and if buyers hold on, we’ll see a return to 38.14 to potentially 38.46.
Intraday short trading setups suggest a short below a 36.6 failed retest with negative divergence, or the failed retest of 37.36 sends us back through targets at 37.01, 36.44, 36.25, 36.09, 35.81, 35.57, and back into familiar regions seen near 35.19 to 35.06, if sellers hang on.
Have a look at the Fibonacci levels marked in the blog for more targets.
E-mini S&P 500 Futures  (ES_F) Â
Below is a S&P 500 futures chart with price support and resistance trading levels for today. Click to enlarge.
The chart of S&P 500 futures failed to break yesterday’s high and insufficient buying power allowed the retracement to support below. Overhead supply remains strong– it still won’t be easy for buyers to breach resistance and hold, but a surprising Federal Reserve announcement could push prices higher. That is the wildcard.
Upside motion on S&P 500 futures has the best setup on the positive retest of 2007.5 or a bounce off 2005 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2005 are 2007.5, 2010.25, 2012, and if we can catch a bid there, we could expand into 2015, 2017.75, 2021.25, and 2023.5. The next resistance tests remain between 2011-2015.75, then 2021-2025. Watch the higher lows to keep you on the right side of the long trade. Charts are firming up, but expect pullbacks to find buyers – see the fib zones for support regions.
Downside motion opens below the failed retest of 2005 or at the failed retest of 2009 with negative divergence – but really watch for the higher lows there- the higher lows will signal that your short is ill positioned. Retracement into lower levels from 2005 gives us the targets 2002.25, 2000.5, 1997.25, 1994.25, 1991.5, 1987.75, 1984.5, 1981.5, 1974.75, 1971.25, 1969.25 and perhaps 1964.5 if selling really takes hold, but that seems quite unlikely at this point in the day.
Have a look at the Fibonacci levels marked in the blog for more targets.
If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.
As long as traders remain aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.
Thanks for reading.
Twitter:Â Â @AnneMarieTrades
The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
